Measure the listing, not the buyer.
This notebook follows a configuration at a store from its first recorded return to the next unavailable observation. The result describes visibility in the source feed. It cannot time a customer’s checkout or show when the physical phones arrived.
Read a range such as 45–60 seconds as two observations: still available at the lower bound and unavailable by the upper bound, measured from the first recorded return. The summary uses upper bounds consistently. A single displayed value is still limited by source observation precision.
Rows marked approximately use the historical 15-second fallback bound because a last-available timestamp was not recorded. Initial sightings do not establish a return, and open intervals have not yet supplied a completed duration. Both are excluded from the completed sample.
Inspect a few intervals before trusting a summary.
The ledger keeps store, configuration and timing together. A row that remains listed has an open clock; it does not prove the listing will remain available when you open Apple. The clock is based on the recorded feed, which can arrive after collection and synchronization delay.
A typical iPhone Duo restock in the US observation record sold out in about 60–80 seconds.
Restock by restock
bar = seconds listed · full at 180 s- Nov 7, 11:00 AM · Duo 256GB Night Sky · Apple Florida Mall52–55 s
- Nov 7, 10:58 AM · Duo 256GB Night Sky · Apple SouthPark47–54 s
- Nov 7, 10:57 AM · Duo 256GB Night Sky · Apple Annapolis37–45 s
- Nov 7, 10:56 AM · Duo 256GB Night Sky · Apple SouthPark61–66 s
- Nov 7, 10:51 AM · Duo 256GB Night Sky · Apple Lenox Square44–49 s
- Nov 7, 10:49 AM · Duo 256GB Night Sky · Apple SouthPark102–107 s
- Nov 7, 10:49 AM · Duo 256GB Night Sky · Apple Manhasset30–38 s
- Nov 7, 10:47 AM · Duo 256GB Night Sky · Apple Easton Town Center60–63 s
- Nov 7, 9:45 AM · Duo 256GB Star White · Apple Michigan Avenue11–15 s
- Nov 7, 10:44 AM · Duo 256GB Night Sky · Apple Millenia60–64 s
- Nov 7, 10:44 AM · Duo 256GB Night Sky · Apple Columbia99–106 s
- Nov 7, 10:43 AM · Duo 256GB Night Sky · Apple SouthPark68–75 s
How this is measured
A separate, longer-window comparison
Across 3,808 completed intervals in the historical Duo record from October 29, 2026, 74% have upper bounds within two minutes and 99% within twenty minutes. This is a different denominator from the 30-day headline sample.
| Model | Completed rows | Median upper bound | ≤ 30 s | ≤ 1 min | Smallest upper bound |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| iPhone 18 Pro | 1924 | 1241 min 58 s | 3% | 6% | 6 s |
| iPhone 18 Pro Max | 5577 | 149 min 50 s | 2% | 4% | 3 s |
Use your acceptable configurations as the comparison set.
Read the completed-row count before comparing medians. 4 of 8 configurations in the detailed sample reach the 10-row display threshold. A lower count is marked thin; it is still shown so that a missing comparison is not mistaken for a zero-second listing.
| Capacity and color | Completed rows | Median upper bound | ≤ 30 s | ≤ 1 min | Smallest upper bound |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 256GB Night Sky | 321 | 64 s | 20% | 46% | 2 s |
| 256GB Star White | 189 | 66 s | 23% | 46% | 4 s |
| 512GB Night Sky | 285 | 55 s | 24% | 55% | 4 s |
| 512GB Star White | 192 | 62 s | 16% | 47% | 5 s |
| 1TB Night Sky | 5 · thin | 76 s | 0% | 40% | 48 s |
| 1TB Star White | 1 · thin | 52 s | 0% | 100% | 52 s |
| 2TB Night Sky | 4 · thin | 2 min 12 s | 0% | 25% | 53 s |
| 2TB Star White | 3 · thin | 110 s | 0% | 0% | 79 s |
A longer median may be interesting if you already want that configuration. It is not evidence that the next listing will last longer, and it should not override your storage needs or budget. Return frequency is a separate measure in the configuration notebook.
Check whose observations a location comparison includes.
A state with more rows has more representation in this sample, not necessarily better access to stock. Its stores, configurations and observation gaps may differ from another state’s. Use the links to inspect a location rather than converting a national ranking into travel advice.
| State | Completed rows | Median upper bound | ≤ 30 s | ≤ 1 min | Smallest upper bound |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York | 324 | 59 s | 27% | 50% | 2 s |
| California | 175 | 52 s | 22% | 59% | 7 s |
| Florida | 93 | 80 s | 8% | 27% | 4 s |
| Texas | 32 | 69 s | 16% | 47% | 8 s |
| Oregon | 31 | 38 s | 45% | 84% | 4 s |
| New Jersey | 27 | 50 s | 19% | 67% | 12 s |
| Massachusetts | 25 | 45 s | 40% | 52% | 8 s |
| Washington | 24 | 79 s | 4% | 42% | 30 s |
| Country | Completed rows | Median upper bound | ≤ 30 s | ≤ 1 min | Smallest upper bound |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 3808 | 75 s | 16% | 41% | 1 s |
| Japan | 2698 | 14 s | 95% | 99% | 1 s |
| Australia | 1174 | 9 min 34 s | 2% | 4% | 15 s |
| United Kingdom | 398 | 75 s | 6% | 35% | 11 s |
| France | 318 | 6 min 15 s | 6% | 12% | 13 s |
| Germany | 257 | 5 min 30 s | 2% | 3% | 15 s |
| Canada | 228 | 88 s | 12% | 36% | 6 s |
The imported US record begins on October 29, 2026; the selected international records begin on November 2, 2026. Those are dataset boundaries, not ShelfSpring operating dates. Different coverage periods and sparse groups limit direct country comparisons.
A weekday check with a stopping rule
The weekday comparison is withheld until the observations span at least 14 days and both groups have 10 completed rows. This sample spans 3 days, with 793 weekday and 207 weekend rows.
A timing experiment, with its assumptions visible.
Imagine checking at a fixed interval while a listing’s start is uniformly positioned between checks. A duration of d seconds and an interval of T seconds give a modeled chance of observation of min(1, d ÷ T). The values below average that model over the separate seven-day sample across all tracked countries; they are not measured delivery rates.
Real collection does not follow every assumption of that experiment. A listing can fall entirely between source checks and leave no recorded interval. This selection effect means the observed distribution cannot establish the distribution of every listing, including missed ones.
Take preparation from the chart, not a countdown.
Decide on acceptable configurations and reachable stores before you need to evaluate a match. When one appears, inspect the current Apple offer. Neither a short median nor a long interval tells you whether that particular order will succeed.
A notification adds another timing stage after the original observation. All ShelfSpring plans share the inventory feed; a higher rule limit does not buy a faster source. Use your account to confirm enabled matches and delivery settings.
What the timing cannot answer
Can I use the median as a checkout deadline?
No. The clock starts at the first recorded available observation, before you may have seen the listing. A median summarizes completed intervals; it cannot say how much time remains on another listing or reserve that inventory.
Why is a state or configuration count smaller than the headline sample?
The headline uses all completed intervals returned by the summary query. The detailed configuration, state and weekday comparisons use the most recent 1,000 listing rows, excluding rows that remain open. Their sample can therefore be smaller.
Do ten completed rows make a reliable prediction?
Ten is a display threshold for flagging sparse groups, not a confidence guarantee. The rows may cluster on a few dates or stores, and observation gaps affect their precision. More data can change a median substantially.
Does an interval explain why the phone disappeared?
It measures a public listing changing from available to unavailable. The feed does not identify a buyer, count units or reveal Apple’s allocation decisions, so the duration alone cannot establish the cause.
Does the sampling chart compare notification services?
No. It applies a mathematical interval model to recorded durations. It does not include real network conditions, repeated checks, source errors or notification delivery, and it does not measure whether a person completed a purchase.
Sources
- ShelfSpring inventory record for the 269-store US catalog, with six separately labelled country samples: historical coverage from October 29, 2026; figures updated Nov 7, 11:04 AM ET. Alerts are sent after matching availability is detected. Source checks, synchronization and notification delivery can add delay. Historical coverage dates describe the dataset, not the age of ShelfSpring.
- Apple: Delivery and Pickup