iPhone Duo / Timing notebook

How much time does a listing leave you?

Observed listing durations help explain why a phone can appear and disappear between visits. Read them as measurements with limits, rather than a countdown for the next restock.

  1. Start with the sample

    A duration needs an observed return and a later sold-out observation. Small samples deserve caution.

  2. Compare like for like

    A national median can hide differences between stores, storage sizes and colors.

  3. Prepare in advance

    Have your preferred configurations and reachable stores ready. Do not rely on a historical median as a grace period.

Measure the listing, not the buyer.

This notebook follows a configuration at a store from its first recorded return to the next unavailable observation. The result describes visibility in the source feed. It cannot time a customer’s checkout or show when the physical phones arrived.

75 s
median of completed interval upper bounds
16%
completed intervals with an upper bound of 30 seconds or less
3,808
completed US Duo intervals in the 30-day reporting window

Read a range such as 45–60 seconds as two observations: still available at the lower bound and unavailable by the upper bound, measured from the first recorded return. The summary uses upper bounds consistently. A single displayed value is still limited by source observation precision.

Rows marked approximately use the historical 15-second fallback bound because a last-available timestamp was not recorded. Initial sightings do not establish a return, and open intervals have not yet supplied a completed duration. Both are excluded from the completed sample.

Inspect a few intervals before trusting a summary.

The ledger keeps store, configuration and timing together. A row that remains listed has an open clock; it does not prove the listing will remain available when you open Apple. The clock is based on the recorded feed, which can arrive after collection and synchronization delay.

A typical iPhone Duo restock in the US observation record sold out in about 60–80 seconds.

75s
half gone within · iPhone Duo
16%
gone within 30 s
41%
gone within 1 min
1s
fastest · 3808 sold-out restocks, 30 d

Restock by restock

bar = seconds listed · full at 180 s
How this is measured
Listing duration is bounded by the last available and first unavailable observation. The ≈ marker identifies an estimated interval. Listings shorter than a check interval can be missed; these durations are not guaranteed checkout windows.

A separate, longer-window comparison

Across 3,808 completed intervals in the historical Duo record from October 29, 2026, 74% have upper bounds within two minutes and 99% within twenty minutes. This is a different denominator from the 30-day headline sample.

Other US models, the same 30-day reporting window; each has its own completed-row sample.
ModelCompleted rowsMedian upper bound≤ 30 s≤ 1 minSmallest upper bound
iPhone 18 Pro19241241 min 58 s3%6%6 s
iPhone 18 Pro Max5577149 min 50 s2%4%3 s

Use your acceptable configurations as the comparison set.

Read the completed-row count before comparing medians. 4 of 8 configurations in the detailed sample reach the 10-row display threshold. A lower count is marked thin; it is still shown so that a missing comparison is not mistaken for a zero-second listing.

US Duo breakdown from at most 1,000 recent listing rows within 30 days. Open intervals are omitted; thin means fewer than 10 completed rows.
Capacity and colorCompleted rowsMedian upper bound≤ 30 s≤ 1 minSmallest upper bound
256GB Night Sky32164 s20%46%2 s
256GB Star White18966 s23%46%4 s
512GB Night Sky28555 s24%55%4 s
512GB Star White19262 s16%47%5 s
1TB Night Sky5 · thin76 s0%40%48 s
1TB Star White1 · thin52 s0%100%52 s
2TB Night Sky4 · thin2 min 12 s0%25%53 s
2TB Star White3 · thin110 s0%0%79 s

A longer median may be interesting if you already want that configuration. It is not evidence that the next listing will last longer, and it should not override your storage needs or budget. Return frequency is a separate measure in the configuration notebook.

Check whose observations a location comparison includes.

A state with more rows has more representation in this sample, not necessarily better access to stock. Its stores, configurations and observation gaps may differ from another state’s. Use the links to inspect a location rather than converting a national ranking into travel advice.

Up to eight states with the most completed rows in the capped US sample; 30-day window.
StateCompleted rowsMedian upper bound≤ 30 s≤ 1 minSmallest upper bound
New York32459 s27%50%2 s
California17552 s22%59%7 s
Florida9380 s8%27%4 s
Texas3269 s16%47%8 s
Oregon3138 s45%84%4 s
New Jersey2750 s19%67%12 s
Massachusetts2545 s40%52%8 s
Washington2479 s4%42%30 s
Separate national summaries requested for the last 30 days. Available source history can cover less than that window.
CountryCompleted rowsMedian upper bound≤ 30 s≤ 1 minSmallest upper bound
United States380875 s16%41%1 s
Japan269814 s95%99%1 s
Australia11749 min 34 s2%4%15 s
United Kingdom39875 s6%35%11 s
France3186 min 15 s6%12%13 s
Germany2575 min 30 s2%3%15 s
Canada22888 s12%36%6 s

The imported US record begins on October 29, 2026; the selected international records begin on November 2, 2026. Those are dataset boundaries, not ShelfSpring operating dates. Different coverage periods and sparse groups limit direct country comparisons.

A weekday check with a stopping rule

The weekday comparison is withheld until the observations span at least 14 days and both groups have 10 completed rows. This sample spans 3 days, with 793 weekday and 207 weekend rows.

A timing experiment, with its assumptions visible.

Imagine checking at a fixed interval while a listing’s start is uniformly positioned between checks. A duration of d seconds and an interval of T seconds give a modeled chance of observation of min(1, d ÷ T). The values below average that model over the separate seven-day sample across all tracked countries; they are not measured delivery rates.

70%
modeled observation share with a 1-minute interval
38%
modeled share with a 5-minute interval
22%
modeled share with a 15-minute interval
9,562
completed intervals across all tracked countries in this seven-day model

Real collection does not follow every assumption of that experiment. A listing can fall entirely between source checks and leave no recorded interval. This selection effect means the observed distribution cannot establish the distribution of every listing, including missed ones.

Take preparation from the chart, not a countdown.

Decide on acceptable configurations and reachable stores before you need to evaluate a match. When one appears, inspect the current Apple offer. Neither a short median nor a long interval tells you whether that particular order will succeed.

A notification adds another timing stage after the original observation. All ShelfSpring plans share the inventory feed; a higher rule limit does not buy a faster source. Use your account to confirm enabled matches and delivery settings.

What the timing cannot answer

Can I use the median as a checkout deadline?

No. The clock starts at the first recorded available observation, before you may have seen the listing. A median summarizes completed intervals; it cannot say how much time remains on another listing or reserve that inventory.

Why is a state or configuration count smaller than the headline sample?

The headline uses all completed intervals returned by the summary query. The detailed configuration, state and weekday comparisons use the most recent 1,000 listing rows, excluding rows that remain open. Their sample can therefore be smaller.

Do ten completed rows make a reliable prediction?

Ten is a display threshold for flagging sparse groups, not a confidence guarantee. The rows may cluster on a few dates or stores, and observation gaps affect their precision. More data can change a median substantially.

Does an interval explain why the phone disappeared?

It measures a public listing changing from available to unavailable. The feed does not identify a buyer, count units or reveal Apple’s allocation decisions, so the duration alone cannot establish the cause.

Does the sampling chart compare notification services?

No. It applies a mathematical interval model to recorded durations. It does not include real network conditions, repeated checks, source errors or notification delivery, and it does not measure whether a person completed a purchase.

Sources

  1. ShelfSpring inventory record for the 269-store US catalog, with six separately labelled country samples: historical coverage from October 29, 2026; figures updated Nov 7, 11:04 AM ET. Alerts are sent after matching availability is detected. Source checks, synchronization and notification delivery can add delay. Historical coverage dates describe the dataset, not the age of ShelfSpring.
  2. Apple: Delivery and Pickup
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